AI will not cause any catastrophes in 2026
3
1kṀ19112027
89%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors. If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
51% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
12% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
17% chance
What will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
65% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
24% chance
Will an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
44% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?
38% chance
Non-AI catastrophe before 2100?
26% chance