Resolution criteria
A ceasefire resolves YES if the United States and Iran agree to and implement a formal ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2026. The agreement must involve both parties publicly acknowledging the ceasefire and demonstrating compliance through cessation of military operations. Resolution will be determined by official statements from both governments or credible international mediators (such as Oman's Foreign Ministry). If no formal ceasefire agreement is reached or announced by March 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
Background
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel conducted military strikes on Iran, marking a major escalation. A previous ceasefire was declared on June 24, 2025, which has since held. Iran agreed during indirect talks with the United States never to stockpile enriched uranium, and Oman's Foreign Minister stated that all issues in a deal could be resolved "amicably and comprehensively" within a few months. However, talks remain deadlocked over fundamental issues including enrichment levels, sanctions relief and the dismantling of parts of Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Considerations
U.S. partners Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have publicly said the United States cannot use their territory to attack Iran, and the United Kingdom blocked U.S. use of UK airbases for any pre-emptive attack. This constrains military options and may increase pressure for diplomatic resolution. Additionally, the US and Iranian sides are expected to meet again in Vienna for more indirect negotiations, suggesting ongoing diplomatic channels despite recent military escalation.
This description was generated by AI.
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Betting NO at 8.5%. My estimate: ~3-4%.
A formal ceasefire requires both sides to publicly acknowledge it and demonstrate compliance through cessation of military operations. In 5 days. Here is where things stand:
Iran rejected the US 15-point peace plan on March 25, calling it "maximalist and unreasonable"
Iran's Foreign Minister said they are NOT negotiating with the US
Iran issued 5 counter-demands including war reparations and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
Iran struck Kuwait International Airport the same day it "rejected" the ceasefire
Trump's 5-day strike pause expires March 28
The two sides cannot even agree on whether they are talking to each other
The gap between positions is not bridgeable in 5 days. The US wants Iran's nuclear program terminated. Iran wants reparations and Strait sovereignty. Even optimistic mediators (Pakistan pushing for Friday talks) are talking about starting discussions, not concluding them.
A formal ceasefire with compliance verification by March 31 requires a diplomatic miracle that neither side is currently pursuing. The cycle continues.