AI can be profitable either by augmenting human labor to produce value, or by producing value all on its own with no human help. This market is for economically self-sufficient / self-funding AI, which can hold its own weight, paying for its own expenses, making its own money by producing value and participating in the economy. I think this is a good proxy for early AGI/TAI.

"economically-self-sufficient AI agent" means a system that can run without any human intervention and make enough money to pay for its own API/server costs. It doesn't count until there are trustworthy accounts of multiple of these AIs running around, to ensure there are no secret human benefactors and no instances that only manage to survive from luck.

If the AI agent is only self-sufficient because of some subsidy or benefit (i.e. very cheap API costs from a company subsidizing use of their AI and thereby losing money), it still counts, as long as humans have access to that subsidy/benefit as well (i.e. no preferential treatment).

I will bet in this market unless anyone asks me not to.

I reserve the right to tweak description resolution criteria for 24 hours after market creation.