OpenAI Astra Prop Bets

MANIFOLD

Ṁ250Ṁ4.5k

Oct 2

ALL

99%

Resolves a FrontierMath Open Problems "Solid Result" or Higher Within One Month of Release

99%

OpenAI claims it is AGI within one week of release

All benchmarks (except for Artificial Analysis and Frontier Math Open Problems) will resolve according to what OpenAI claims Astra scores on them. In Lieu of that, I will look to third-party benchmarking, prioritizing the benchmark's official leaderboard (like https://www.terminal-bench-science.ai/ for terminal bench science)

TERMINAL-BENCH-SCIENCE

A benchmark for evaluating AI agents on research workflows across scientific domains

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Will OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?

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bought Ṁ50 YES

Epoch AI (@EpochAIResearch) on X

Another problem from FrontierMath: Open Problems has been solved! The solution was elicited by Becker, Greger, and @DominikPeters in an interactive session with GPT-6 Astra. Peters originally suggested the problem for the benchmark. He had this to say.

bought Ṁ75 YES

OpenAI just claimed it's AGI, OpenAI president and cofounder Greg Brockman answered the question about whether Astra qualifies as AGI in an OpenAI press briefing; he said:

“I think we’re there.”

@JasonMendoza2008 @JaundicedBaboon also they said Welcome to the AGI Era here: Just a moment...

@JasonMendoza2008 if no other statements or clarifications are made within the week I’ll resolve yes based on this

bought Ṁ110 YES

@JaundicedBaboon can we resolve the ones that need to be resolved

has anyone read the system card? gpt 6 astra in fact did score slightly lower than 5.6 sol on a some specific safety benchmarks https://deploymentsafety.openai.com/gpt-6-astra/static-jailbreak-evaluations