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MANIFOLD
Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?
22
Ṁ1.2kṀ9.2k
Dec 31
96%
1530+
41%
1540+
20%
1550+
13%
1560+
13%
1570+
11%
1580+
11%
1590+
2%
1600+
Resolved
YES
1490+
Resolved
YES
1500+
Resolved
YES
1510+
Resolved
YES
1520+

An option resolves YES if any model gets at least that option's arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) without style control, before EOY 2026.

This market's resolution mirrors this polymarket but with additional options.

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bought Ṁ599 YES

@Bayesian 1520 resolves yes

bought Ṁ190 YES

@Bayesian 1510 resolves yes

@perfperfperf isn’t the number 1 at 1507 currently?

@bumin yeah it hit 1510 previously though

@bumin (resolution mirrors polymarket and polymarket answer for 1510+ resolved yes)

@perfperfperf I guess that’s fair

@Bayesian description says "before 2026," i take that to mean before the end of 2026?

@perfperfperf that's right

Start of February 2026, highest score is 1481.

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