Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026? | Manifold

Chatbot Arena: How high will AI score in 2026?

20

Ṁ1.2kṀ5.9k

Dec 31

94%

1520+

52%

1530+

31%

1540+

28%

1550+

30%

1560+

27%

1570+

23%

1580+

23%

1590+

16%

1600+

Resolved

YES

1490+

Resolved

YES

1500+

Resolved

YES

1510+

An option resolves YES if any model gets at least that option's arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) without style control, before EOY 2026.

This market's resolution mirrors this polymarket but with additional options.

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In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

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bought Ṁ190 YES

@Bayesian 1510 resolves yes

@perfperfperf isn’t the number 1 at 1507 currently?

@bumin yeah it hit 1510 previously though

@bumin (resolution mirrors polymarket and polymarket answer for 1510+ resolved yes)

@perfperfperf I guess that’s fair

@Bayesian description says "before 2026," i take that to mean before the end of 2026?

@perfperfperf that's right

Start of February 2026, highest score is 1481.

People are also trading

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Related questions

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Thinking Machines to top Chatbot Arena by EOY 2026?

[ACX 2026] What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Will AI top level capabilities generally be judged by question and answer benchmarks in 2029?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?