Will resolve to yes if any country will live stream a bombing attack on another country

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC, any sovereign country's military, government body, or official state-controlled media outlet officially broadcasts a real-time (or near-real-time, subject to standard short broadcast delays) live stream of an active bombing, missile, rocket, or drone strike being conducted against another country.

To qualify for a YES resolution, the event must meet the following conditions:

• Official Source: The live stream must be officially hosted, broadcast, or distributed in real-time by the attacking country's state apparatus (e.g., official military streaming channels, state-run television, or official government social media accounts).

• Live Broadcast: It must be a live feed of the strike as it happens. Pre-recorded, highly edited, or post-incident footage (such as combat footage compilations or drone strike videos uploaded after the fact) does not qualify.

• State vs. State: The attack must be directed by a sovereign country against another sovereign country. Attacks by non-state actors do not qualify unless the group is the internationally recognized or de facto governing authority of a state at the time of the event.

• Exclusions: Live streams hosted independently by third-party news organizations (e.g., a news crew live-streaming a city during an active bombardment) do not qualify, unless they are syndicating a live stream feed directly provided by the attacking state's military. Leaked or unauthorized feeds do not count.

Resolution will be verified using reports from major, credible international news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC). If no such event is verified by the cutoff date, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Modern militaries increasingly utilize digital media to wage information warfare, frequently uploading first-person-view (FPV) drone footage, guncam videos, and strike-assessment media shortly after engagements occur. However, broadcasting live, real-time attacks remains rare due to strict operational security (OPSEC) protocols and the risk of giving adversaries actionable intelligence. This market tracks whether a nation state will cross this threshold by intentionally live-streaming an active offensive bombardment to the public as a tool of statecraft, deterrence, or propaganda.