This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2030 at 11:59 PM UTC, there is a publicly confirmed act of terrorism in which biological weapons are intentionally used or deployed by either a non-state actor (such as a terrorist group or extremist cell) or a state actor engaged in a terroristic or covert operation, in order to:

• Cause death or illness among civilians,

• Incite widespread fear, panic, or political destabilization,

• Coerce or blackmail governments or populations,

• Disrupt critical infrastructure or agriculture.

Importantly, conventional wartime use of bioweapons between military forces or in declared armed conflict does NOT count. The act must be terroristic in intent or character, involving civilian targeting, coercive messaging, or clandestine sabotage, even if perpetrated by a state.

Resolution Criteria (YES)

This market resolves YES if, by the deadline, there is credible, public evidence confirming an intentional act of terrorism involving bioweapons, meeting all the following criteria:

1. Attribution

At least one of the following publicly attributes the act to a terroristic intent involving bioweapons:

• A government agency (e.g. FBI, CDC, WHO, UN Security Council),

• International monitoring body (e.g. OPCW, Interpol),

• Peer-reviewed scientific or intelligence publication,

• Major, reputable media outlet (e.g. BBC, Reuters, NYT),

• Official criminal or investigative report.

2. Perpetrator

The actor is:

• A non-state entity (terrorist group, ideological network, lone-wolf extremist, separatist militia),
  OR

• A state actor or state-sponsored group, only if the action is classified as:

  • A covert, deniable, or non-military terrorist-style operation,

  • Targeting civilians, infrastructure, or agriculture to spread fear or chaos, not as part of open warfare.

3. Biological Agent

The weapon must be biological, for example:

• Pathogens (bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions),

• Biological toxins (e.g. botulinum, ricin),

• Genetically modified organisms designed to spread disease,

• Synthetic biology constructs with pathogenic effects.

4. Terroristic Nature

The act must exhibit at least one of the following characteristics:

• Deliberate targeting of civilians, civilian infrastructure, or food/agricultural systems,

• Designed to instill fear or panic, not as a conventional military goal,

• Carried out outside a formal war zone or declared battlefield,

• Accompanied by threats, manifestos, ideological claims, or coercive demands.

5. Real-World Impact

At least one of the following consequences must be documented:

• Infections, hospitalizations, or deaths resulting from the agent,

• Large-scale quarantine, public health emergency, or economic disruption,

• National-level security or public health response,

• Broad media coverage and acknowledgment of terroristic bioweapon use.

Resolution Criteria (NO)

This market resolves NO if, by December 31, 2030:

• No confirmed act of bioterrorism has occurred,

• Any biological incidents are:

  • Accidental (e.g. lab leaks),

  • Natural outbreaks (e.g. pandemics of unknown origin),

  • Military bioweapon use in traditional warfare (e.g. battlefield deployments),

  • State use without terroristic intent or plausible deniability,

  • Any claimed events are discredited, retracted, or reclassified as hoaxes or conventional attacks.

Clarifications & Examples

Would count as YES:

• A terrorist group releases modified anthrax in a subway system to induce mass panic.

• A state intelligence agency secretly releases a weaponized virus in an enemy nation’s capital to cripple its economy and instill fear, without admitting responsibility.

• An ecoterrorist group infects livestock with a modified pathogen as an act of political sabotage.

Would NOT count:

• A state releases a bioweapon during a declared war between regular armies.

• A naturally emerging pandemic is later found to have no terrorist involvement.

• A biological research accident causes infections but with no malicious intent.

• A bioweapons program is discovered, but no use or credible attempt occurred.

Resolution Process

Market will be resolved based on public evidence, including:

• Official statements or government reports,

• Investigative journalism and intelligence leaks,

• Academic consensus or peer-reviewed analysis,

• Major incident coverage by globally trusted news organizations.