Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the next Australian federal election, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) secures an absolute majority in the House of Representatives, defined as winning at least 76 out of 151 seats. If the ALP fails to achieve this majority, the market will resolve to "No." The official results published by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will serve as the definitive source for resolution.

Background:

Australia is scheduled to hold its general election on Saturday, May 3, 2025. The incumbent Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, leads the center-left Labor Party, which currently holds 77 seats in the House of Representatives. The main opposition is the conservative Liberal-National coalition, headed by Peter Dutton. Recent opinion polls indicate a competitive race, with some suggesting a slight lead for the Coalition and others showing Labor ahead. Key issues influencing voter sentiment include the high cost of living, housing affordability, energy policy, and relations with China. The outcome may also be affected by the performance of independent and minor party candidates, who could play a pivotal role if neither major party secures a majority. (reuters.com)

Considerations:

• Polling Variability: Different polls have shown varying leads for both major parties, indicating a potentially volatile electorate. (thenightly.com.au)

• Influence of Minor Parties and Independents: In the event of a hung parliament, the role of independents and minor parties becomes crucial, as they may support either major party to form a minority government. (reuters.com)

• Key Voter Demographics: Younger voters, particularly Millennials and Generation Z, who now constitute 43% of the electorate, are mobilizing to influence the election outcome, often focusing on issues like climate change and housing affordability. (reuters.com)

• Economic Factors: Rising inflation and housing shortages are significant concerns among voters, potentially impacting the election results. (apnews.com)

Traders should monitor official announcements from the AEC and reputable news sources for the most accurate and up-to-date information regarding the election outcome.