Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to the option that accurately reflects the outcome of the Australian federal election scheduled for May 3, 2025. The possible resolutions are:

• Labor majority: The Australian Labor Party secures at least 76 seats in the House of Representatives, allowing it to form a majority government.

• Labor minority: The Australian Labor Party secures fewer than 76 seats but forms a government with the support of independents or minor parties.

• Coalition (Liberal-National) majority: The Liberal-National Coalition secures at least 76 seats in the House of Representatives, allowing it to form a majority government.

• Coalition (Liberal-National) minority: The Liberal-National Coalition secures fewer than 76 seats but forms a government with the support of independents or minor parties.

If neither the Labor Party nor the Coalition forms a government, the market will resolve as N/A.

Background:

Australia's federal election on May 3, 2025, will determine the composition of the 151-seat House of Representatives. A party or coalition needs at least 76 seats to form a majority government. If no party achieves this, a minority government may be formed through agreements with independents or minor parties.

As of May 1, 2025, opinion polls indicate a competitive race. A RedBridge-Accent poll shows the Labor Party leading 53% to 47% over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis. Another YouGov poll suggests Labor could secure up to 85 seats, potentially marking the Coalition's worst performance since 1946. However, other polls suggest a tighter contest, with some indicating the possibility of a hung parliament. (reuters.com)

Key issues influencing voters include the high cost of living, housing affordability, energy policy, and relations with China. Both major parties have proposed different solutions to address these concerns, contributing to the dynamic nature of the election. (apnews.com)

Given the variability in polling data and the potential impact of undecided voters, the election outcome remains uncertain, with both majority and minority government scenarios possible for either major party.