Resolved based on the first party (/coalition) guaranteed supply following the 2025 federal election, as determined by the swearing-in of a prime minister by the Governor-General. It will not be necessary for the House of Representatives to sit for the question to be resolved.

If there is a lengthy delay determining who is guaranteed supply (like 2010), delaying the swearing-in beyond 11.59pm (AEST) on 30 June 2025, the question will resolve to the 'Other / none' option.

The perceived strength / fragility of any coalition will not be taken into account. However, the swearing-in of an interim prime minister pending continued negotiations will not cause the question to resolve, even if they are guaranteed supply for some interim period.

Traditionally affiliated parties are lumped into the major categories above - e.g. the Queensland LNP and NT Country Liberal Party will be treated as part of the Liberal-National coalition. For the avoidance of doubt, the Greens will be treated as a minor party.

Please let me know if you have any questions or spot anything in the resolution criteria that can be made more precise. (I'm not a constitutional lawyer, sorry.)