It's rare for an Australian government not to lose vote share after their first term.

Will the 2025 election be an exception?

Resolves YES if The Australian Labor party gets a national two-party-preferred vote share larger than 52.132745% (their 2022 result) in the 2025 Australian federal election.

Data source is final numbers from the Australian Electoral Commission.

(image source: Antony Green, ABC)

• Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the timing and conditions for resolution:

  • The market will resolve based on the final numbers from the Australian Electoral Commission.

  • Alternatively, the market may resolve earlier if enough votes have been counted in the national two-party-preferred (2PP) count for the outcome (whether Labor's share exceeds 52.132745% or not) to become a mathematical certainty.

• Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated they may provisionally resolve the market based on partial data from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) or estimates from reputable sources (e.g., ABC).

  • Any such provisional resolution can be reversed, and the market re-resolved, if the final official numbers from the AEC subsequently show a different outcome.

  • The definitive resolution of the market remains based on the final AEC numbers.