Which Australian political party will become the dominant party after the next House election (as of Feb 2024)?
19
930Ṁ5249
resolved May 3
Resolved
YES
Australian Labor Party
Resolved
NO
Liberal Party
Resolved
NO
National Party
Resolved
NO
Australian Greens
Resolved
NO
One Nation
Resolved
NO
Jacqui Lambie Network
Resolved
NO
Centre Alliance
Resolved
NO
David Pocock Party
Resolved
NO
Katter's Australian Party
Resolved
NO
United Australia Party

Disclaimer: I am not Australian and have no investment/incentive. I'm doing this for an acquaintance who is interested to know. Please correct me about anything regarding how I set up this poll. The acquaintance requested that I count the Liberal Party and National Party separately. If both end up doing well or so, I guess it can be totaled or averaged (whichever is more correct).

  • Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Seats will be counted towards a party's total based on the federal party room the elected Member of Parliament (MP) sits in. This includes:

    • Seats won by LNP (Liberal National Party of Queensland) MPs will be counted as either Liberal or National depending on which party room they join.

    • Seats won by CLP (Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory) MPs will be counted as either Liberal or National depending on which party room they join.

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@JohnHankey sorry to trouble you, but there's something else you may want to clarify here...

While the Liberal and National parties are separate entities in most of the country, the two have merged in Queensland and the Northern Territory to create the LNP and CLP respectively.

Results from the 2022 election looked like this:

In federal parliament, however, there is a Liberal party room and a National party room. LNP MPs do not have their own party room, they sit in one or the other.

I see you've clarified that "dominant" means having the most seats, but could you clarify what counts as a Liberal seat? I assume that if an LNP or CLP candidate wins a seat and sits in the National party room, that won't be counted as a Liberal seat. What about an LNP MP who sits in the Liberal party room? Thanks

@a_l_e_x From what I understand (from my own research), I will count it as the media suposedly often does by counting it based on who sits in what party room. It shouldn't matter at a glance of the poll though as Labor seems to be sweeping the win.

@JohnHankey yep, not going to matter by the looks of it. Thank you for clarifying though!

"Dominant" = most seats in the house of representatives @JohnHankey?

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