The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.
To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
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@chrisjbillington have you bet real money this one? if you think it’s 60% likely sportsbet is giving you a 50% expected return
@brod I haven't. Thinking about it, but it's not like I'm actually super confident. 60% might have been too high.
@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.