In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?

The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.

To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.

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bought Ṁ0 of YES

@AlexPaton I put a limit order up for Ṁ1000 YES at 35% if you're interested

bought Ṁ499 of NO

@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

The long run trend is pretty steadily towards minor parties and independents.

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