In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives? | Manifold

In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?

73

1kṀ40k

Oct 25

33%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.

To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.

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This is more overvalued than ever.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/28/most-voters-now-disapprove-of-anthony-albaneses-performance-as-pm-guardian-essential-poll-finds

@AlexPaton I put a limit order up for Ṁ1000 YES at 35% if you're interested

@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.

The long run trend is pretty steadily towards minor parties and independents.

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