Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to the candidate who secures the Democratic nomination for the New York City mayoral election in 2025. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the Democratic Party or the New York City Board of Elections. If no candidate receives the nomination, the market will resolve as N/A.
Background:
The 2025 New York City mayoral race has attracted several prominent Democratic candidates:
Andrew Cuomo: Former Governor of New York, Cuomo announced his candidacy in March 2025, emphasizing the city's need for effective leadership during a time of crisis. (abc7ny.com)
Zohran Mamdani: A member of the New York State Assembly representing the 36th district in Queens, Mamdani is known for his progressive policies, including support for rent freezes and free public transportation. (en.wikipedia.org)
Brad Lander: Serving as New York City Comptroller since 2022, Lander has a background in urban planning and community organizing. He announced his mayoral candidacy in July 2024, focusing on progressive reforms. (en.wikipedia.org)
Zellnor Myrie: A New York State Senator representing parts of Brooklyn, Myrie declared his candidacy in December 2024. He has been active in housing rights and electoral reform. (en.wikipedia.org)
Adrienne Adams: The current Speaker of the New York City Council, Adams entered the mayoral race in March 2025, backed by endorsements from key officials and labor unions. (en.wikipedia.org)
Scott Stringer: Former New York City Comptroller, Stringer launched his campaign in January 2025, aiming for a political comeback after his 2021 mayoral bid. (en.wikipedia.org)
As of early 2025, polls indicate that Cuomo holds a significant lead among Democratic voters, with Stringer and Lander trailing behind. (amny.com)
Considerations:
The Democratic primary is expected to be highly competitive, with candidates representing a range of political ideologies from moderate to progressive. Voter sentiments on issues such as public safety, housing affordability, and economic recovery will likely influence the outcome. Additionally, the use of ranked-choice voting in the primary may impact the dynamics of the race.
1,000People are also trading
@TomNeuburg mana subsidies on a market determine how much mana it takes to move the market price (assuming no limit orders by users). Markets with low subsidy tend to be spiky and unstable, and make it difficult to invest large amounts without big “slippage”.
Anyone can add subsidy to a market, but sometimes Manifold Politics, which is owned by the website itself, will add some to important or popular markets.
Market on whether Trump will call for Mamdani's deportation:
https://manifold.markets/Riley0RgZ/trump-calls-for-deportation-of-zohr
Margin of victory question up:
https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/nyc-mayor-dem-primary-margin-of-vic?r=SGlsbGFyeUNsaW50b24
First poll to have Mamdani leading Cuomo: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/11/zohran-mamdani-climbs-to-top-of-poll-leading-andrew-cuomo-00401594
@Balasar semi's occasional trading can be very distortionary on manifold (on net, that distortion makes the site more accurate—in any single case, who knows)
@HillaryClinton I'm from The Netherlands, so not able to vote. So getting a different media perspective on this. Why does he suck, curious :)
@TheWabiSabi he's just the ultimate status quo mayor. Nothing good, nothing bad. He won't fix anything.
Zohran will destroy NYC.
Adams is corrupt, but he has some good policy. I'd vote Adams.
@yaakovgrunsfeld i dunno how much his Ratposting appeals to the median voter but i'm ready to ride into battle for it.
RATS HATE HIM. HYPOTHETICAL FUTURE HOUSING UNITS LOVE HIM