At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability that Trump ever had sex with Bill Clinton. For the purposes of this market, oral sex counts as sexual intercourse.
A poll will be conducted in January 2026 and it will resolve to the percent who believe this happened. For example, if 60 people vote Yes, and 40 people vote No, this will resolve to 60%.
No other rules, you may influence other users to vote however you wish.
Update: The poll will run in January and this question will remain open during the poll.
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll that will determine this market's resolution will be conducted at the linked market: https://manifold.markets/HillaryClinton/did-donald-trump-have-sex-with-bill-Q0gP966nch?r=SGlsbGFyeUNsaW50b24
1,000People are also trading
20÷80=25%, why so low odds on this market? People are probably going to join the yes side to make more profit.
@Velaris I voted no lol
Although I wouldn't be surprised if a brojob as it is known happened once or twice
@Blocksterpen3 Jeffery Epstein and his brother were joking about tape of Donald blowing Bill in their emails