At end of 2025, resolves based on the probability that Trump ever had sex with Bill Clinton. For the purposes of this market, oral sex counts as sexual intercourse.

A poll will be conducted in January 2026 and it will resolve to the percent who believe this happened. For example, if 60 people vote Yes, and 40 people vote No, this will resolve to 60%.

No other rules, you may influence other users to vote however you wish.