This market was intended to be a poll but it’s clear Manifold would skew negative, so the question pertains to how Americans view Donald Trump (the politician) into 3 broad categories:

Positive: this includes most of MAGA (voted for Trump without any regrets/caveats on his political tactics such as lying, tweeting, inflammatory rhetoric, “fascism”), but also some left wing such as supporters of Mamdani/AOC that voted for Trump in 2024 since they believe he is an effective politician (independent of specific policy positions e.g. ending wars, cost of living), I’m guessing this includes comedians that posture as apolitical or even liberal but enjoy Trump as a politician (Andrew Schultz, Joe Rogan, Shane Gillis?, Theo Von?) assuming that their public personas are not solely praising him for the content/entertainment he provides for their career would otherwise be anti-Trump.

Neutral/Agnostic: this is for people like Ben Shapiro or outlets like the Free Press, that don’t “irrationally hate Trump” but acknowledge he is a flawed politician, they’re willing to praise him at times for his unconventional tactics (even Sam Harris did this for the Gaza ceasefire, but he’s clearly negative) and may say he’s a great politician for his ability to get deals done and “be a fighter for the common man”. This generally includes most conservatives who were likely “Never Trump” in 2015-16 but likely voted for him 3x as a shrewd political calculation and also liberals who “don’t have TDS” (like John Fetterman).

Negative: this is basically the majority of people who are anti-Trump and struggle to name a single positive thing about him, including the majority of the “mainstream” (think 2010s and earlier when “civility” and “decorum” were valued), most people who never voted for Trump would fall into this category, though if you believe in Horseshoe theory some populist left (e.g. Jimmy Dore, RFK, Tulsi though they might be viewed as grifters who were never truly left wing) may have voted against Trump due to having left wing politics rather than questioning his fitness for being a politician at all. Think all the anti-Trump former republicans (Kinzinger, Cheney, Romney, Bulwark) and of course the majority of Democrats, basically anyone with “TDS” as claimed by the right.

TL;DR version:

Positive = Trump is/was better than standard republican (Ted Cruz / DeSantis / Haley/Rubio/JD Vance/Vivek) and not solely for political reasons (e.g. he’s a populist or the most conservative)

Note: obviously in 2028, most of these politicians will be more Trump-like than they would in an alternate world where Trump is not seen as successful or Teflon Don (No political repercussions for scandals - e.g. 2016: Temperment/Character, 2020: Corruption, 2024: Jan 6,

In 2028 how will they differentiate from Trump if at all: Epstein/Economy/Corrupt/Wealth Inequality/AI/Age?)

Neutral = willing to both criticize and praise (broadly, not narrow/empty)

Negative = has Trump Derangement Syndrome or in general thinks he’s one of the worst people in the world (again: independent of the specific policy positions, but rather how he achieves them)

I do not intend to resolve the market unless there’s convincing evidence (e.g. polls) on this question, so it should be traded like a stock market.

Final Note: I think this is a more sticky measure than something like “Approval Rating” because it’s about the general framing of him as a politician rather than the ups and downs of specific issues such as immigration/economy/trade/inflation

AI generated:

Resolution Criteria

This market will not resolve based on a predetermined date or event. It functions as a perpetual poll reflecting evolving American sentiment toward Donald Trump's political rhetoric and persona. Resolution may occur only if credible polling data (e.g., Gallup, Pew Research, AP-NORC) emerges that clearly categorizes American views into the three specified buckets with sufficient granularity. Otherwise, the market trades indefinitely as a sentiment indicator, with prices reflecting traders' assessments of current public opinion distribution across the three categories.

Background

American views on Trump have shifted significantly since his 2016 emergence. His 2024 election victory and subsequent political positioning have created new coalitions—including some progressive voters who prioritize his foreign policy positions over his rhetoric. Simultaneously, traditional conservative skepticism has evolved into either pragmatic support or principled opposition. The framing of "independent of politics" is intentionally broad to capture assessments of Trump as a political figure and communicator, rather than specific policy positions.

Considerations

The three categories are deliberately overlapping and subjective—individuals may reasonably fit multiple categories depending on which aspects of Trump's rhetoric and political style are weighted. Polling data that would cleanly resolve this market is unlikely to exist, as most surveys measure approval ratings or policy preferences rather than aesthetic/rhetorical assessments. Traders should expect this market to remain open-ended, with prices fluctuating based on cultural moments, media coverage, and evolving public discourse rather than definitive resolution events.