Which incumbent Representative or Senator will have the lowest WAR in the 2026 Midterm US Congressional Elections?
3
100Ṁ1422027
44%
Ilhan Omar (MN-05) - Democratic
15%
Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA-14) - Republican
4%
Nick Begich (AK-AL) - Republican
6%
Cynthia Lummis (WY-SEN) - Republican
5%
Mark Warner (VA-SEN) - Democratic
26%
Earlier this year, Split Ticket released their 2024 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Model for the 2024 US Election. This model measures how well a candidate outperformed "controlling for seat partisanship, incumbency, demographics, and money", and is intended to be a barometer for candidate quality in Congressional races in both the House and the Senate. For this market, I will only consider incumbent candidates in 2026 (whether or not they win their race).
2024's worst performing incumbents were Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) at D+17.7 and Representative Ilhan Omar (D:MN-05) at R+13.1. This question will be resolved to the single worst performing incumbent in all of Congress.
https://split-ticket.org/full-wins-above-replacement-war-database/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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