Will any U.S. congress seat up for election in 2026 be decided by less than 0.25% of votes received?

Question

In the 2024 U.S. congressional elections, three of the 435 House seats and one of the 26 Senate seats up for reelection in that cycle were decided by less than 0.25% in very closely contested races.

With the division in this country politically, the midterms are shaping up to be just as competitive if not more so.

This market will resolve YES for any US House seat or any US Senate seat up for election in calendar year 2026. This WILL include any special elections which take place that year.

I will resolve the day the new members of Congress are sworn in, January 3, 2027.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 88% chance (4 traders, as of Jan 11, 2026).

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