Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if credible media sources report a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before January 1, 2027. For this question, a direct conflict would be defined as:

• Any presence of uniformed troops within the internationally recognized borders of a hostile state without permission (whether these are NATO soldiers within Russian borders, or Russian soldiers within the borders of any NATO member state.)

• A direct and intentional military attack resulting in fatalities within the internationally recognized territory of Russia and/or any NATO country, acknowledged by the attacker or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by a NATO country or Russia, respectively. This includes aerial attacks or air defense.

• A direct military engagement resulting in fatalities of uniformed soldiers of a NATO member state or Russia, within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, or any other country (including international waters.)

For the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.