All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' 5 AI Predictions For The Year 2030.
Also, don't miss Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024" (all gathered under one tag.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2030's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
The other 2030 prediction markets below:
1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today. (This market!)
3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Description of this prediction from the article:
1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today.
Nvidia is the hottest company in the world right now. It has been the biggest beneficiary of today’s generative AI boom, with its market cap skyrocketing from under $300 billion in late 2022 to over $2 trillion today.
But Nvidia’s position as the single dominant provider of chips for AI cannot and will not last.
What Nvidia has built is difficult, but not impossible, to replicate. A resurgent AMD is emerging as a credible alternative provider of advanced GPUs, with its cutting-edge new MI300 chip about to become widely available. The big tech companies—Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta—are all investing heavily to develop their own AI chips in order to lessen their dependence on Nvidia. OpenAI’s Sam Altman is seeking up to trillions of dollars of capital to build a new chip company in order to diversify the world’s supply of AI hardware.
As demand for AI chips continues to grow in the years ahead, relentless market forces will ensure that more competitors will enter, supply will increase, prices will drop, margins will tighten and Nvidia’s market share will fall.
In addition, as the market matures in the years ahead, the primary type of AI computing workload will shift from training to inference: that is, from building AI models to deploying those models in real-world settings. Nvidia’s highly specialized chips are unrivaled when it comes to training models. But inference can be done with cheaper and more commoditized chips, which may undermine Nvidia’s advantage in the market and create an opening for competitors.
None of this is to say that Nvidia will not still be an important part of the AI ecosystem in 2030. But the current stratospheric runup in its stock price—which has made it the third most valuable company in the world as of this writing, larger than Amazon or Alphabet—will in retrospect look like irrational exuberance.
Meanwhile: what is the one thing that sets Intel apart from virtually every other chip company in the world?
It manufactures its own chips.
Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, Cerebras, SambaNova, Groq: none of these companies build their own chips. Instead, they design chips and then they rely on other companies—most importantly, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)—to produce those chips for them.
Intel alone owns and operates its own chip fabrication facilities.
The ability to manufacture chips has become a vital geopolitical asset. Case in point: China’s utter dependence on foreign semiconductor suppliers has enabled the U.S. to handicap China’s domestic AI industry by banning the import of AI chips to China.
U.S. policymakers are acutely aware of the vulnerabilities posed by the extreme concentration of chip manufacturing in Taiwan today, especially as China adopts an increasingly hawkish stance toward the island. Promoting advanced semiconductor manufacturing on U.S. soil has become a top policy priority for the U.S. government. U.S. lawmakers are taking decisive action to advance this goal, including committing a whopping $280 billion to the effort under the 2022 CHIPS Act.
It is no secret that Intel has fallen behind TSMC over the past decade in its ability to manufacture cutting-edge chips. Yet it still remains one of the few companies in the world capable of fabricating advanced semiconductors. Under CEO Pat Gelsinger, who took the helm in 2021, Intel has reprioritized chip fabrication and undertaken an ambitious strategy to reclaim its former position as the world’s preeminent chip manufacturer. There are recent indications that the company is making progress toward that goal.
And perhaps most importantly: there is simply no other option to serve as America’s homegrown chip manufacturing leader.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimundo, who leads the Biden administration’s efforts on AI and chips, acknowledged this directly in a recent speech: "Intel is the country’s champion chip company.”
Put simply, America needs Intel. And that bodes well for Intel’s commercial prospects.
Nvidia’s market cap today is $2.2 trillion. Intel’s, at $186 billion, is more than an order of magnitude smaller. We predict that this gap will have shrunk significantly by 2030.
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