All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' 5 AI Predictions For The Year 2030.
Also, don't miss Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024" (all gathered under one tag.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2030's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
The other 2030 prediction markets below:
1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today.
3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.
5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues. (This market!)
Description of this prediction from the article:
Concerns about technology-driven job loss are a familiar theme in modern society, dating back to the Industrial Revolution and the Luddites. The AI era is no exception.
But to this point, discussions about the impact of AI on job markets have been mostly theoretical and long-term-oriented, confined to academic research and think tank whitepapers.
This is going to change much more abruptly than most people appreciate. Before the decade is out, AI-driven job loss will be a concrete and pressing reality in everyday citizens’ lives.
We are already beginning to see canaries in the coalmine here. Last month, fintech giant Klarna announced that its new customer service AI system is handling the work of 700 full-time human agents. Plagiarism detection company Turnitin recently projected that it would reduce its workforce by 20% over the next 18 months thanks to advances in AI.
In the years ahead, organizations will find that they can boost profitability and productivity by using AI to complete more and more work that previously required humans. This will happen across industries and pay grades: from customer service agents to accountants, from data scientists to cashiers, from lawyers to security guards, from court reporters to pathologists, from taxi drivers to management consultants, from journalists to musicians.
This is not a distant possibility. The technology is in many cases already good enough today.
If we are honest with ourselves, a major reason why we are all so excited about AI in the first place—a major reason why AI offers such transformative economic opportunity—is that it will be able to do things more cheaply, more quickly and more accurately than humans can do them today. Once AI can deliver on this promise, there will be less need and less economic justification to employ as many humans as today in most fields. Almost by definition, in order for AI to have an impact on society and the economy, it will take people’s jobs. Of course, new jobs will also be created—but not as quickly and not as many, at least at first.
This job loss will bring with it tremendous near-term pain and dislocation. Political movements and leaders will arise in fierce opposition to this trend. Other segments of society will just as vocally champion the benefits of technology and AI. Civil unrest and protests will be inevitable; they will no doubt turn violent at times.
Citizens will clamor for their elected officials to take action, in one direction or another. Creative policy proposals like universal basic income will go from fringe theories to adopted legislation.
There will be no easy solutions or clear-cut ethical choices. Political affiliations and social identities will increasingly be determined by one’s opinions on how society should navigate the spread of AI throughout the economy.
If you think the political moment in 2024 is tumultuous: buckle up.
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