What will NVIDIA's market cap be on Jan 1st, 2026, in $ Trillions?
https://ycharts.com/companies/NVDA/market_cap
I'll use ycharts to resolve.
NVIDIA's market cap recently jumped to over $1B. If AI experiences a much larger takeoff in the next few years, NVIDIA seems likely to be one of the main companies to benefit from this.
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Gr... looks like the closing market cap was $4.595T. But the Manifold editor doesn't seem to allow for decimal answers? Just integers? Anyone have ideas here?
Sorry for the delay on this!
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@OzzieGooen Im also not sure how these work, but since the "HIGHER" bidders cannot lose more than everything (which they do on 1.0), I do not know where the extra profit should come from in case it was actually lower than 1.0.
@travis Then why are "HIGHER" options so cheap? And how should 0 even work on a log scale? That's like unbounded losses for the "HIGHER" bidders. I think that preview below 1 is a bug.
@travis Do you remember what you entered when you created the question? Because the maximum on that graph also jumps between 10 and 100 when I click it.
@LeonBohnmann They never explained exactly how these work. They give this mapping formula in the API docs: (max - min + 1)^probability + minstart - 1
Maybe minstart is supposed to be min? I think the graph is wrong based on playing around with these two other numeric log markets:
@travis Oh, I thought it was min*(max/min)^probability, as shown in their plots. Their formula at least allows you to put in 0 as a minimum and that explains why they cannot use the min and max for their plots.