NVIDIA's Market Cap on Jan 1, 2026, in $ Trillions?

What will NVIDIA's market cap be on Jan 1st, 2026, in $ Trillions?

I'll use ycharts to resolve.

NVIDIA's market cap recently jumped to over $1B. If AI experiences a much larger takeoff in the next few years, NVIDIA seems likely to be one of the main companies to benefit from this.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ10 of HIGHER

Added liquidity!

predicts LOWER


bought Ṁ50 of LOWER

Why did you rule out the option that it decreases from today? The current value should be more like the expectation value (up to inflation) instead of the minimum.

predicts HIGHER

@LeonBohnmann That was unintentional, if there is some limit.

predicts LOWER

@OzzieGooen Im also not sure how these work, but since the "HIGHER" bidders cannot lose more than everything (which they do on 1.0), I do not know where the extra profit should come from in case it was actually lower than 1.0.

predicts LOWER

@LeonBohnmann The bounds are actually 0 - 100. Not sure why the graph shows 1.

predicts LOWER

If you spam 9 in the "bet lower" box, it will show the real lower bound.

predicts LOWER

@travis Then why are "HIGHER" options so cheap? And how should 0 even work on a log scale? That's like unbounded losses for the "HIGHER" bidders. I think that preview below 1 is a bug.

predicts LOWER

@travis Do you remember what you entered when you created the question? Because the maximum on that graph also jumps between 10 and 100 when I click it.

predicts LOWER

@LeonBohnmann They never explained exactly how these work. They give this mapping formula in the API docs: (max - min + 1)^probability + minstart - 1

Maybe minstart is supposed to be min? I think the graph is wrong based on playing around with these two other numeric log markets:



predicts LOWER

@travis Oh, I thought it was min*(max/min)^probability, as shown in their plots. Their formula at least allows you to put in 0 as a minimum and that explains why they cannot use the min and max for their plots.