All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' 5 AI Predictions For The Year 2030.
Also, don't miss Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024" (all gathered under one tag.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2030's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
The other 2030 prediction markets below:
1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today.
3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.
4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used. (This market!)
5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Description of this prediction from the article:
Two of the hottest topics in AI today are agents and artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Agents are AI systems that can complete loosely defined tasks: say, planning and booking your upcoming trip. AGI refers to an artificial intelligence system that meets or exceeds human capabilities on every dimension.
When people envision the state of AI in 2030, agents and/or AGI are often front and center.
Yet we predict that these two terms won’t even be widely used by 2030. Why? Because they will cease to be relevant as independent concepts.
Let’s start with “agents”.
By 2030, agentic behavior will have become a fundamental, essential element of any advanced AI system.
What we today refer to using the umbrella term “agents” is actually just a core set of capabilities that any truly intelligent entity possesses: the ability to think long-term, plan, and take action in pursuit of open-ended goals. Becoming “agentic” is the natural and inevitable end state for today’s artificial intelligence. Cutting-edge AI systems in 2030 will not just generate output when prompted; they will get stuff done.
In other words, “agents” will no longer be one intriguing subfield within AI research, as they are today. AI will be agents, and agents will be AI. There will thus be no use for the term “agent” as a standalone concept.
What about the term “AGI”?
Artificial intelligence is fundamentally unlike human intelligence, a basic truth that people often fail to grasp.
AI will become mind-bogglingly more powerful in the years ahead. But we will stop conceptualizing its trajectory as heading toward some “generalized” end state, especially one whose contours are defined by human capabilities.
AI great Yann LeCun summed it up well: “There is no such thing as AGI….Even humans are specialized.”
Using human intelligence as the ultimate anchor and yardstick for the development of artificial intelligence fails to recognize the full range of powerful, profound, unexpected, societally beneficial, utterly non-human abilities that machine intelligence might be capable of.
By 2030, AI will be unfathomably more powerful than humans in ways that will transform our world. It will also continue to lag human capabilities in other ways. If an artificial intelligence can, say, understand and explain every detail of human biology down to the atomic level, who cares if it is “general” in the sense of matching human capabilities across the board?
The concept of artificial general intelligence is not particularly coherent. As AI races forward in the years ahead, the term will become increasingly unhelpful and irrelevant.