Will Nvidia's market cap exceed 10% of the total S&P 500 market cap by 2030?
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Nvidia doesn’t have a monopoly on matrix multiplication.

I suspect much of the value of next-gen AI will accrue to the upper layers of the stack e.g. OS providers (Apple + Microsoft)

Just like much of the value of the Mac & iPhone goes to Apple not to Broadcom, Micron, Intel etc. (even before Apple started making their own chips)

For record, as of creating this market:
The S&P 500 has a market capitalization of $46.019 trillion dollars
NVIDIA has a market cap of $3.038 Trillion (6.6%)