Will the ICJ punish/charge Israel of commiting genocide or attempting to commit genocide by the end of 2026?
Will the ICJ punish/charge Israel of commiting genocide or attempting to commit genocide by the end of 2026?
6
100Ṁ1732027
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is a follow up to my older question:
Only the Acts A) and D) , listed on Article III of the Genocide Convention will count (Linked). Incitation, conspiracy or complicity (B,C,E) aren't the scope of this question, and won't resolve it as YES.
This market will resolve either by:
1) Court verdict by the ICJ, reported officially or by the majority of large news vehicles.
2) No verdict by the end of 2026. Will resolve as NO.
I will not bet on this market to take out any possible Bias. If there's any questions, important information, and even news of a resolution, feel free to comment and message me.
Genocide Convention:
Definition and explanation of genocide:
https://www.un.org/en/genocide-prevention/definition
Previous ICJ judge decisions
https://cld.irmct.org/notions/
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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