Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is officially dissolved, the Rome Statute is formally terminated, or the court permanently ceases all of its judicial and administrative operations.

Such an outcome must be confirmed by an official announcement from:

• The International Criminal Court (https://www.icc-cpi.int/)

• The Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute

• The United Nations (https://www.un.org/)

This market will resolve to NO if the ICC remains an active legal institution as of the end of December 31, 2026.

Note: Individual member state withdrawals (such as those initiated by Venezuela, Chad, or Hungary) or diplomatic campaigns to pressure, sanction, or "disable" the court do not constitute dissolution unless they result in the formal legal termination of the institution itself by the end of 2026. Under Article 127 of the Rome Statute, individual state withdrawals take one full year from notification to become legally effective.

Background

In July 2026, the U.S. State Department under Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a sweeping diplomatic and economic campaign to "dismantle" and "disable" the International Criminal Court. Concurrently, multiple nations—including Chad, Venezuela, Hungary, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger—have recently announced or initiated formal processes to withdraw from the Rome Statute, citing allegations of institutional bias. This market monitors whether these coordinated pressures and systemic withdrawals will culminate in the total dissolution of the court during 2026.