By the end of 2043, will the world record for oldest living person ever be beaten by 5 years?
24
162
1k
2044
29%
chance

The record for oldest person was made by Jeanne Louise Calment, who lived 122 years, 164 days. The currently living oldest person is Maria Branyas Morera who has, on 9/25/23, lived 116 years, 205 days.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Will you adjust the baseline if further evidence comes out that Jeanne Calment’s record is fraudulent?

predicts YES

@NicoDelon I would say that whatever is confirmed as the record at the date this market was made at the date this market closes will be used as the baseline when resolving this market. For instance if Jeanne's record is considered fraudulent, then the next record will be used as the baseline. Please let me know if this needs clarity.

predicts NO

@DanielKilian I think the baseline should be the record as it is believed to be today. Whether that record will be deemed fraudulent should be a separate market.

@jskf @DanielKilian Whichever way you go makes sense. I’d just like to know if I should price in the probability that the record is bunk.

predicts YES

@jskf Thanks, and yes. I think for the sake of making this market clear as possible, I will go with the baseline being the record as it is believed to be today.

More related questions