Will the next dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 be derived from Omicron?

45

101Ṁ2100

resolved Jun 8

Resolved

YES

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More precisely, when we have a new #1 strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA according to http://covariants.org/per-country, will it be descended from Omicron? If this does not happen by the end date of 2022/Dec/31, it will resolve to Yes, since it means that Omicron will still be #1.

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Omicron didn't derive from Delta but from an older strain. Even though Delta had infected >99% of people. This may be because human populations have strong immunity to the most recent strain, privileging older strains.

I'm Contributing™.

Some live discussion from the forecasting meetup: - Omicron did not evolve from Delta, even though Delta was accounting for ~99% of covid cases at the time - Most cases today are omicron, but that may mean that most people have omicron antibodies

Omicron 2 ftw

If most people have Omicron and it's derived by a random person with covid, it should be derived from Omicron.

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