Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
Mini
6
108
2026
25%
chance

Will be resolved if more than 1000 cases of a previously unknown pathogen are recorded occur on every continent, excluding Antarctica.

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Do variants of existing pathogens count? How different does it have to be?

@ahalekelly I think a good guideline is at least as novel as the COVID-19 coronavirus was when it emerged in 2020.

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