Will the next pandemic be primarily caused or significantly spread by factory farming?
9
76
418
2099
37%
chance

Resolves when:

  • A new pandemic is declared by an international health organization such as WHO.

Resolves YES if:

  • Credible evidence indicates that the primary cause or a significant contributing factor to the pandemic's spread is related to factory farming practices.

  • Examples include diseases such as H1N1, H5N1, H7N9, BSE, etc., where the initial zoonotic transfer or significant amplification of the disease's spread is traced back to factory farming.

Resolves NO if:

  • The pandemic is determined to have originated from sources not related to factory farming, such as a lab leak, direct transmission from wildlife (not involving factory farming practices), vector-borne diseases (spread by mosquitoes, ticks, etc.), or other unrelated mechanisms.

  • This includes scenarios similar to the predominant theories about the origins of COVID-19, which involve wildlife markets or potential lab leaks, and not factory farming.

Resolves N/A if:

  • We eradicate factory farming or pandemics before the next pandemic.

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