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MANIFOLD
Will the US-Iran ceasefire (set to expire April 21, 2026) be extended or replaced by another formal pause before then?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ53
Apr 21
70%
chance

The two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 8, 2026 (mediated by Pakistan) is set to expire on April 21, 2026. As of April 16, both sides are publicly considering an extension. JD Vance is leading US negotiations. RESOLVES YES if, by 23:59 UTC on April 21, 2026, either party (or both) has publicly announced an extension of the ceasefire OR a new bilateral truce/pause that takes effect immediately upon expiration. A 'framework' or full peace deal that supersedes the ceasefire also counts as YES. RESOLVES NO if the ceasefire lapses without an announced extension or replacement, even if active fighting does not immediately resume. Mediator-only proposals do not count — the parties themselves must announce.

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