I believe these are all below 10 traders https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/when-will-manifold-shut-downread-de https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-we-discover-an-extraterrestria https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-there-be-someone-intentionally https://manifold.markets/GastonKessler/will-we-get-agi-before-ww3

When will Manifold shut down?(READ DESC)

32% chance. Resolves to 100%-(days from the date of creation of this market/10). Resolves no on july 10th 2027.

I have changed the resolution criteria. The market now resolves NO if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 1% (instead of below 1%) and YES if it trades for more than 4 weeks at 99% (instead of above 99%).

It seems like what would be needed here is to be able to use the total traders option in the browse view, but sorted by a low number rather than a high number of traders. Should be a relatively easy addition.

Meanwhile, I'm not sure "get all markets above 10 traders by making a bunch of small bets" is a good goal. Some markets are by people who are no longer active users or have a history of resolving markets poorly, and people should be using their judgment about which markets to participate in.

It is, however, a prosocial act to boost or subsidize a market that asks a question you would like to see get a good answer, and maybe manifold could put in place incentives to encourage this behavior.

This market will resolve YES if it trades for more than 4 weeks above 99%. It will resolve NO if it trades for more than 4 weeks below 1%.

This seems like it could be manipulated

@PlasmaBallin At 99% or 1% market forces are extreme. I don't think that can be manipulated for 4 weeks against evidence.

@GreenComp it would be hard for someone to make it resolve, but they could prevent it from resolving.

Cool idea!

Here's a few of mine :)

Here’s 643 to get you started.

https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=uk-2024-general-election-constituen