Market Goal
To forecast the scope and explicit content of any forthcoming Hamas Disarmament Agreement in the context of the ongoing peace negotiations.
Resolution criteria
If no formal disarmament agreement is published by the closure date, all options resolve N/A.
Once a document is officially published, each option resolves YES only if the concept is explicitly written in the signed text.
References appearing only in press releases, interviews, or public statements do not count.
If the concept appears only in a later phase (Phase n) of negotiations, but not in the first disarmament document, it resolves NO.
Closure policy
The closure date will be extended as long as negotiations remain active.
If negotiations are officially declared derailed, the market will close 10 weeks later.
If talks resume within those 10 weeks, the closure will be extended again.
If not, the market will close and resolve as N/A.
Resolution policy
The market will resolve only after the full text of the disarmament agreement is publicly released.
It will not resolve based on secondary or unofficial reports.
Creator participation
As creator I may trade in several options but will avoid options with potentially ambiguous wording or resolution criteria.
1,000People are also trading
@JessicaEvans thanks for betting
do you think Hamas will commit to disarmament without any warranty that IDF will withdraw? Or do you believe IDF will promise to withdraw but without any explicit timeline and they will leave the door open to stay in Gaza as long as they consider?
@MiguelLM Those possibilities combined, though disjunctive, make up the majority of what I think is plausible. At this point I think Hamas is going to agree to anything, not exactly sincerely, more like rhetorically with the understanding that Israel will consistently declare them to have later broken any ceasefire so there's not any actual additional cost to agreeing to anything.
@JessicaEvans “not any actual additional cost to agreeing to anything.”
I think I see your point. Not signing an agreement would lead to a massive attack, so any other alternative, even with very modest payback, would be better for Hamas.
This seems to be true for Hamas.
But what about the countries that would commit ISF troops? Would they be happy to keep IDF forever in Gaza? I guess they offered their armies because they genuinely think replacing IDF by and international force is the best for long-standing peace.
@MiguelLM My model for what's going on at this point is just Assad style depopulation. There isn't a single point at which the consensus narrative or official state communications touch reality, they are all either obfuscation or genuine ignorance. Figuring this out actually calmed me down somewhat because it clarified credibly for me that the campaign isn't fully eliminationist
For reference, title and full text of former agreements:
President Donald J. Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict
Implementation Steps for President Trump's Proposal for a "Comprehensive End of Gaza War"