This market is an experiment to see if it's possible to make markets that resolve based on the closing percentage but are hard for whales to manipulate.
If no one bets 1000 or more mana on it, it resolves YES if it closes at or above 50%, and NO otherwise.
If anyone bets 1000 or more mana on it, it resolves NO if it closes at or above 50%, and YES otherwise.
Normally, traders are incentivized to bet the market towards an extreme. However, if anyone spends 1000 or more mana to try to push the market towards a certain outcome, other traders are incentivized to bet it to 50%, which should cause the whale to lose their mana.
Let's see if my idea actually works or not. I can think of a few ways it might fail, but that's up to you to figure out. If it fails, I might try again with a different set of resolution criteria.
Since the resolution criteria are clear, I may bet on this market.
Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 1000 mana threshold will be determined by the "Spent" value for any single user, as displayed in the Holders section at market close.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ44 | |
| 2 | Ṁ19 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Closed at 66%.
No one tried to bet over 1000 mana.
Resolved YES.
@chris If it's under 1000 mana, someone else can bet YES right back. If it's equal or over 1000 mana, people can bet the market to 50%.
@yuki Does the 1000 mana have to be in a single bet? Or is it cumulative? If it’s cumulative how will you count multiple bets? What if they bet, sell at a different price, and bet again?
@Velaris I have around 4000 mana. More than enough to bet 999 on YES immediately after the whale and turn it back around.
Everyone's betting power is equal.