Will open-source AI win? (through 2028)
Plus
45
Ṁ22612029
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
33% chance
Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)
17% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2024?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
44% chance
Will OpenAI Announce AI Robots in 2024?
12% chance
Which (if any) "big tech" companies will "open source" their AI models in 2024?
Will OpenAI have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
52% chance
By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
24% chance
By the end of Q2 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
61% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
60% chance