Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the trajectory of Venezuelan living conditions over the 5-10 year period following Maduro's removal on January 3, 2026. Resolution will be determined by comparing key indicators against baseline conditions as of early 2026:

• Better future: Quality of life improves measurably from baseline (currently ~82% in poverty), employment rises, income inequality decreases, and net migration reverses (Venezuelans returning home).

• Worse future: Oil sector prioritized for export revenue while social services, education, and healthcare deteriorate; domestic oil prices rise sharply; social unrest increases.

• Same future: Conditions remain largely unchanged despite leadership transition; structural economic problems persist without meaningful improvement or deterioration.

Resolution will reference: World Bank poverty and living standards data, IMF GDP and employment statistics, UN migration data, and Venezuelan government economic reports. The creator will assess which outcome best matches conditions circa 2031-2036.

Background

Venezuela's economy has been in total collapse since 2013, with millions fleeing as economic migrants and GDP falling 80% in less than a decade. Living standards plummeted 74% between 2013 and 2023. Subsidized gasoline in Venezuela was not just the cheapest in the world but often virtually free.

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military strike and captured President Nicolás Maduro, transporting him to New York City to face federal criminal charges. The Venezuelan government remained in place, with Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as acting president on January 5, 2026. The Trump administration made clear that access to Venezuelan oil was a core reason for the action.

PDVSA estimates the cost to update oil infrastructure to return to peak production would cost $58 billion. Rystad Energy estimates it would take $183 billion over more than a decade to restore Venezuelan oil production to 1990s-era levels.

Considerations

The outcome depends heavily on whether US-backed oil sector investment translates to broader economic development or remains narrowly focused on energy extraction. The breakeven price for Venezuelan oil projects is around $80 per barrel, but oil prices are projected to stay between $60-$70 for the next several years, creating disincentives for investment. Additionally, major oil firms have been notably cautious, citing uncertainty over the country's political trajectory and durability of legal protections. The market assumes the three outcomes are mutually exclusive and exhaustive; if conditions fall between categories, the creator's judgment will determine resolution.