Will Democrats win big in 2024? || Will "downfall of America will really speed up" during 2024-2028?

300Ṁ1691

2028

ALL

Democrats yes || downfall yes

Democrats yes || downfall no

46%

Democrats no || downfall yes

52%

Democrats no || downfall no

This market is part of a series of markets originally inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com, but now including Twitter predictions to broaden the search space.

They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.

Winning big is house, senate and presidency, downfall speeding up is negative change in trend for a majority of HDI, life expectancy (correcting for the pandemic), rate of home ownership, GDP and percentage of population living in poverty

Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
- Single options cannot be resolved with this market type.

2024 US Presidential Election

Democratic Party

Joe Biden

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bought Ṁ200 NO

@CodeandSolder Resolves NO, along with the other "Democrats yes" answer

@binarypigeon can't resolve single options with this market type

Thank you all for submissions, I updated the criteria

Downfall could be measured in unemployment rate, rates of home ownership, life expectancy, number of people living below poverty level, murder rate in Chicago.

The criteria on this could be easily firmed up with "D trifecta, 2027 GDP < 2022 GDP"

Downfall could be measured by things like declining GDP, declining life expectancy, declining rates of education, etc. - basically if our HDI starts going down.