Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the UK government issues an official public statement explicitly condemning the USA's military operation in Venezuela that occurred on January 3, 2026. The statement must be from an official UK government source (Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, or equivalent) and must use language that clearly constitutes a condemnation of US actions. Statements that merely express concern about international law or call for restraint without explicitly condemning the US operation resolve NO. Resolution will be determined by official UK government statements available through GOV.UK or major news outlets reporting on official UK government positions.

Background

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a large-scale military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. International law experts, officials in the United States, the United Nations, and other countries questioned its legality. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that "The UK has long supported a transition of power in Venezuela. We regarded Maduro as an illegitimate President and we shed no tears about the end of his regime". Starmer, a former human rights lawyer, stressed the importance of international law but did not say whether he thought Trump's actions broke it.

Considerations

Starmer has sought to stay on good terms with Trump and has adopted a less publicly critical approach than most other European leaders. The EU high representative stated that the European Union is closely monitoring the situation and that "the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected" and called for restraint, providing a contrast to the UK's more cautious response.