Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States military conducts any attack on Venezuelan soil after January 3, 2026. An "attack" is defined as any military strike, bombing, airstrike, or armed operation by US forces targeting Venezuelan territory or military/civilian infrastructure. The market resolves NO if no such attack occurs through December 31, 2026.

Resolution will be determined by official statements from the US Department of Defense, the Trump administration, or credible international news sources documenting the attack.

Background

On January 3, 2026, the United States military attacked Venezuela, capturing Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. The attack, codenamed Absolute Resolve, began around 2 am local time when explosions were observed. More than 150 United States Armed Forces aircraft were involved in the operation, which bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela to support an apprehension force that landed in Caracas.

This operation was preceded by months of escalation, including seizures of oil tankers carrying Venezuelan crude in December 2025, with the Coast Guard's Deployable Specialized Forces conducting tactical boardings in coordination with Department of Defense assets. These seizures formed part of the broader blockade preceding the January 2026 operation. The Trump administration has struck at least 32 vessels, killing about 115 people, in the Caribbean Sea and Eastern Pacific Ocean since September.

Considerations

Republican Senator Mike Lee said that Secretary of State Marco Rubio "anticipates no further action in Venezuela now that Maduro is in US custody." However, President Trump stated: "We are going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition". He indicated that the US might send troops to Venezuela as part of this. The question hinges on whether additional military operations will occur beyond the January 3 operation, given the stated intention to maintain US influence over Venezuela's transition.

• Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Vessel striking will not count toward resolution of this market. Only attacks on Venezuelan soil as defined in the original criteria (military strikes, bombings, airstrikes, or armed operations targeting Venezuelan territory or infrastructure) will be considered.