Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be available by the end of 2032?
18
40
1k
2033
72%
chance

A tuberculosis vaccine for infants was developed a century ago but has variable/poor efficacy, often estimated at ~50% effective.(doi.org/10.1001/jama.1994.03510330076038)

The WHO preferred product characteristics for a new TB vaccine cite 50% efficacy for adults OR 80% efficacy for infants. (who.int/publications/i/item/WHO-IVB-18.06)

Efforts to develop an improved TB vaccine are well underway; the most advanced candidate concluded a promising phase 2b trial in 2019. (There are 3 phases in normal vaccine development, so phase 2b is very advanced, but phase 3 takes the longest.) (doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1909953)

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