What significant changes in modern life will occur by the year 2030? [add answers]

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2029

43%

Encountering a humanoid robot in public and not being surprised

30%

People spending large amounts of time in VR hardware (100+ million hours per week in the US)

25%

Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US

21%

Major armed conflict between world powers breaks out (World War 3)

15%

Revolutionary breakthrough in fusion energy

14%

Any government in the world (local, regional, national) is run by an AI system

Global digital currency replaces traditional banking systems

Space tourism/travel becomes commercially viable for middle class

This question is an attempt to gather criteria to resolve this question: https://manifold.markets/rohanvisme/will-the-world-look-shockingly-simi

Questions will resolve to to YES if they have occurred by January 1st, 2030.

Update 2025-28-01 (PST): - Threshold for VR usage: 100 million hours per week in the US (AI summary of creator comment)

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:re Fully driverless cars are >=1% of miles driven in the US, current baseline is a rate of ~50M miles per year, vs 3T miles per year total. Driverless miles need to increase by 600x to reach 1%.

How do you define a breakthrough in fusion energy? What has to happen exactly?

@SimoneRomeo, first I'm a complete momo on this topic, so please bear with me as I muddle through this.

We've had a number of "breakthroughs" in fusion reaction duration times and output, but we've not seen plans to build a production/commercial fusion plant yet or the start of construction on one.

I've asked Claude, and this its suggestion

"Beginning physical construction of a fusion power plant that has secured:

Full regulatory approval for construction
At least $1B in committed funding
A signed power purchase agreement with a utility company"

What do you think?

@rohanvisme this option is unfortunately rather vague, how many people, and how much time?

@TheAllMemeingEye I looked up how much time people in the US are spending on video games, and I got this: 190.6 million hours each week (which is kind of shocking to me tbh).

If we set the metric as 100 million hours each week (approximately half of total gaming time as of now), would that seem reasonable?