What will happen to the UK before 2050?
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20
1.6k
2050
95%
Coronation of King William
81%
Rejoining the European Customs Union
77%
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
70%
A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)
54%
A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties
52%
a year where population declines by 1%
50%
A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)
50%
Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)
50%
A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)
49%
A year with inflation >10%
48%
The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected
48%
UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops
41%
Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty
37%
Winning the FIFA world cup
34%
House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"
29%
rejoining the European Union
26%
joining the Euro
22%
A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada
20%
Two new monarchs after Charles III
14%
Republic

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Republic

How much getting rid of the monarchy does this require? Could they still be around doing ceremonial things, but without needing to rubberstamp their assent to laws? Could they have no formal legal status in the government but still be rich/famous and living in buckingham palace? Do they have to be murdered like the romanovs?

@JonathanRay "Republic" means "no monarchy"

The means don't matter to this option

But IIRC, the European Court of Human Rights has ruled that they cannot be arbitrarily deprived of their personal property; I don't know which properties they own personally and which are owned by the Crown

electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist
bought Ṁ50 electing a PM who co... YES

How strict is "contemporaneous" here? Does the PM need to explicitly say they're a socialist while in office, or is it sufficient for them to describe as a socialist during the campaign and then win?

@Fion Any time during the campaign or the term in office counts.

bought Ṁ50 electing a PM who co... YES
electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist

What if it's a woman?

@lisamarsh that still counts, I just use the masculine pronoun for convenience

Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty

Minor border adjustments do not count.

Winning the FIFA world cup

This is pretty impossible to happen to the UK, which is not a FIFA member. Does England winning count?

@BrunoParga What about Scotland/Wales/NI? And is this just men's football?

@lisamarsh Only men's football. If any of the UK members (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) wins, that counts. If it exits the UK before winning, that doesn't count.

electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist

I assume "democratic socialist" counts?

@Fion Yes

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