Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024.
Resolution criteria:
Significant Adoption: The technology must be adopted to a degree that indicates it has moved beyond the experimental or niche phase.
Operational Efficiency: The technology should demonstrate reliable and efficient operation in real-world conditions.
Regulatory Approval: If applicable, the technology must receive approval from relevant regulatory bodies.
Economic Viability: The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits.
Independent Verification: The breakthrough should be independently verified by reputable sources.
If it is unclear whether any given technology meets these requirements before 2050, resolves to some subjective percentage value.
Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - True Mind Uploading Definition: Requires a perfect copy of at least some regions of the brain. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Autonomous Flying Cars: Only air travel capability is required; ground capability is optional. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-18-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Human mind uploading is the complete replication of a human mind's structure, function, and consciousness into a digital or artificial substrate.
It requires a high-resolution scan of the brain's neural architecture and synaptic connections.
The uploaded mind must exhibit continuity of identity, memory, and subjective experience.
It must be indistinguishable from the original mind in terms of cognitive and emotional responses.
The process must be verifiable through independent scientific validation.
It should not rely on speculative or unproven assumptions about consciousness.
Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Economic Viability Clarification:
Broader Market Requirement: A technology must demonstrate viability in a wider economic market, not just niche or research settings.
Niche vs. For-Profit: Technologies used solely in government-funded or highly specialized projects (e.g., exclusive use in space missions) are less likely to meet the economic viability needed for significant adoption.
Adoption Beyond Research: Evidence of economic viability should show that the technology is driving widespread use, creating new industries, or significantly improving existing ones, rather than merely transacting sales to research institutions.
Overall Impact: The economic viability criterion is assessed in terms of its contribution to overall significant adoption by 2049.
Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) – Human Specificity:
In this market, BCI is defined strictly in a human-specific context.
Any breakthrough in BCI must be directly applicable to human cognitive enhancement or interaction to be considered for significant adoption.
Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Quantum Computing Applications Clarification:
Evidence that quantum computers achieve quantum advantage by 2049, meaning they solve certain real-world problems significantly faster or more effectively than the best available classical systems.
This quantum advantage must be demonstrated in commercially relevant applications consistently and reliably.
Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Synthetic Meat Criteria:
Must be indistinguishable by taste from conventional meats (e.g., beef, chicken, pork) as determined by blind taste tests, making it very difficult for typical consumers to reliably differentiate.
For novel meat types that do not replicate existing meats, resolution depends on whether culinary experts and consumers broadly recognize and accept it as a form of meat.
Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commercial Viability:
Seafloor mining operations must be commercially viable by demonstrating a significant and measurable contribution to the global supply of at least one critical mineral (e.g., cobalt, nickel, manganese).
Seafloor Mining Robots:
Defined as autonomous or highly automated underwater vehicles capable of navigation and performing core mining functions such as resource collection with minimal real-time human control (supervised autonomy is acceptable).
Widespread Adoption:
By the end of 2049, the use of seafloor mining robots should be established as an industry standard, ensuring the breakthrough is widely implemented.
1,000@KJW_01294 Lumina bacteria come close but don't quite fit.
Not an Implant: It's a topical application, not an implanted device integrated within the body.
Questionable Symbiosis: The mechanism is more competitive/antagonistic towards other microbes than truly symbiotic with the human.
It also doesn't (yet) fit general resolution criteria such as significant adoption.
@JuJumper a cell that does not share a common origin with biological cells. None of its ancestors were the result of the mitosis of an organic cell. The cell itself can contain structures identical to those of organic cells.
@MalachiteEagle So it should be assembled "from scratch"?
which parts (how big?) can be extracted from living cells before synthesis?
@JuJumper other than DNA, none of the parts may be extracted from living cells. With the caveat that some structures may be engineered from proteins produced using organic cells, provided that those structures are created outside of the organic cells.
@JuJumper Resolves YES if, by the end of 2049, commercially viable seafloor mining operations are demonstrably widespread, utilizing autonomous or highly automated underwater robots for key extraction tasks. “Seafloor mining robots” are defined as underwater vehicles capable of autonomous navigation and performing core mining functions like resource collection with minimal real-time human control, though supervised autonomy is acceptable. “Widespread” means that seafloor mining using robots is an established industry, contributing a significant and measurable portion to the global supply of at least one critical mineral (e.g., cobalt, nickel, manganese).
On resolution criteria: "Economic Viability: The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits."
Does being bought from another company and used (i.e. it's not the direct target of research) in a research setting satisfy this? For example, suppose some technology were only used for space missions, would that be "commercially viable"?
@eyesprout +Also, does quantum computing applications necessarily mean full error-corrected quantum computing? Or would NISQ annealers having commercial impact be enough?
@eyesprout Thank you for a great clarification request!
Niche vs. Widespread Viability: While a technology used in a niche application (like space missions) or purchased for research purposes can demonstrate some level of commercial viability, this alone may not be sufficient. The key is to consider if this niche application is indicative of a broader economic market and potential for wider commercial use by 2049. A technology solely used for highly specialized, government-funded projects, for example, might not inherently demonstrate the “economic viability” needed for widespread adoption in the broader economy. A successful for-profit application of the technology would have a better case then government-funded one. It might not always be clear whether the research in question is more government-funded or for-profit (as is future space missions). However, if some technology is only used in government-funded space missions, I'd say it fails to meet Significant Adoption criterion.
The “Economic Viability” should be assessed in terms of its contribution to the overall “Significant Adoption.” Is the technology becoming widespread because it is economically viable in broader markets, creating new industries, significantly improving existing ones, or providing widespread cost savings/benefits?
If the primary “commercial viability” in 2049 is just sales to research institutions for experimental purposes, even if those sales are commercially transacted, this is less likely to demonstrate the “Economic Viability” needed for a “YES.” We need to see evidence of economic viability driving adoption beyond just the research phase and into broader application.
@eyesprout you seem to know much more than me in this area so you are welcome to suggest specific criteria on quantum computing applications. I would say that evidence that quantum computers in 2049 are demonstrably and consistently achieving “quantum advantage” (solving certain real-world problems significantly faster or better than the best classical computers) in commercially relevant applications would be a strong indicator of a YES.
@eyesprout yes, synthetic meat should be indistinguishable by taste. It should, in blind taste tests, be very difficult for typical meat consumers to reliably differentiate it from conventional meat of the same type (e.g., beef, chicken, pork). In case we have a novel meat type but not a replica of existing meats, I'd say we resolve according to if culinary experts and consumers broadly recognize it and accept it as a form of “meat.”
@JuJumper I don't have the bags necessary to do so, nor to be blunt, the confidence in the resolution criteria.
Well, "Gene Editing Therapies" can be resolved as "yes" now, because a CRISPR-based therapy was approved in 2023, and CRISPR is the currently available gene editing technique:
Does this need to be single cell/single layer? If not, this already exists: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar-cell_efficiency
If yes, then this is theoretically impossible.