Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024.

Resolution criteria:

• Significant Adoption: The technology must be adopted to a degree that indicates it has moved beyond the experimental or niche phase.

• Operational Efficiency: The technology should demonstrate reliable and efficient operation in real-world conditions.

• Regulatory Approval: If applicable, the technology must receive approval from relevant regulatory bodies.

• Economic Viability: The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits.

• Independent Verification: The breakthrough should be independently verified by reputable sources.

If it is unclear whether any given technology meets these requirements before 2050, resolves to some subjective percentage value.

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - True Mind Uploading Definition: Requires a perfect copy of at least some regions of the brain. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Autonomous Flying Cars: Only air travel capability is required; ground capability is optional. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-18-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Human mind uploading is the complete replication of a human mind's structure, function, and consciousness into a digital or artificial substrate.

  • It requires a high-resolution scan of the brain's neural architecture and synaptic connections.

  • The uploaded mind must exhibit continuity of identity, memory, and subjective experience.

  • It must be indistinguishable from the original mind in terms of cognitive and emotional responses.

  • The process must be verifiable through independent scientific validation.

  • It should not rely on speculative or unproven assumptions about consciousness.

• Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Economic Viability Clarification:

  • Broader Market Requirement: A technology must demonstrate viability in a wider economic market, not just niche or research settings.

  • Niche vs. For-Profit: Technologies used solely in government-funded or highly specialized projects (e.g., exclusive use in space missions) are less likely to meet the economic viability needed for significant adoption.

  • Adoption Beyond Research: Evidence of economic viability should show that the technology is driving widespread use, creating new industries, or significantly improving existing ones, rather than merely transacting sales to research institutions.

  • Overall Impact: The economic viability criterion is assessed in terms of its contribution to overall significant adoption by 2049.

• Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) – Human Specificity:

  • In this market, BCI is defined strictly in a human-specific context.

  • Any breakthrough in BCI must be directly applicable to human cognitive enhancement or interaction to be considered for significant adoption.

• Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Quantum Computing Applications Clarification:

  • Evidence that quantum computers achieve quantum advantage by 2049, meaning they solve certain real-world problems significantly faster or more effectively than the best available classical systems.

  • This quantum advantage must be demonstrated in commercially relevant applications consistently and reliably.

• Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Synthetic Meat Criteria:

  • Must be indistinguishable by taste from conventional meats (e.g., beef, chicken, pork) as determined by blind taste tests, making it very difficult for typical consumers to reliably differentiate.

  • For novel meat types that do not replicate existing meats, resolution depends on whether culinary experts and consumers broadly recognize and accept it as a form of meat.

• Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commercial Viability:

  • Seafloor mining operations must be commercially viable by demonstrating a significant and measurable contribution to the global supply of at least one critical mineral (e.g., cobalt, nickel, manganese).

Seafloor Mining Robots:

• Defined as autonomous or highly automated underwater vehicles capable of navigation and performing core mining functions such as resource collection with minimal real-time human control (supervised autonomy is acceptable).

Widespread Adoption:

• By the end of 2049, the use of seafloor mining robots should be established as an industry standard, ensuring the breakthrough is widely implemented.

• Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time travel breakthrough clarification:

  • The technology must be distinctly time-machine-like, meaning it must produce a scenario where an object or individual experiences usefully less elapsed time inside the device as measured by a physical clock (not just a subjective sensation).

  • Any approach that does not meet this standard, even if it involves relativistic effects or other mechanisms, does not satisfy the resolution criteria for a breakthrough in time travel within this market.

  • This criterion must be met in addition to the existing general market requirements.

• Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Desalination Technology Criteria:

  • Commercial Availability: The technology must be commercially available.

  • Energy Efficiency: It must reduce energy consumption for seawater desalination (salinity ~35,000 ppm, recovery rate ≥50%) to below 1.5 kWh per cubic meter.

• Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Brain computer interfaces (BCI): Must interface with multiple specific neurons for complex interactions and be a widely adopted regulated medical device.

  • Bioprinting: Must create complex, vascularized tissues (e.g., kidney organoids, heart valves) that can be successfully transplanted and function long-term.

  • Gene editing therapies: Must be for several common conditions and have a cost low enough to be a practical option within major healthcare systems.

  • Regenerative medicine: Must feature therapies that verifiably reverse damage from a major disease (e.g., regrowing heart muscle after a heart attack, restoring neurons after spinal injury).

• Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Autonomous Flying Cars answer:

  • The vehicle's purpose must be human transportation.

  • A human operator must be able to specify the travel destination.

• Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Time travel to the future answer, it must become a routine and practical method for achieving a real goal.

  • This goal can be commercial or non-commercial (e.g., for research).

  • Research into the phenomenon of time travel itself will not be considered a valid goal; the technology must be used to achieve a different objective.

• Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells clarification:

  • A synthetic cell is defined as a cell that does not share a common origin with biological cells

  • None of its ancestors were the result of mitosis of an organic cell

  • The cell can contain structures identical to those of organic cells

  • Other than DNA, none of the parts may be extracted from living cells

  • Some structures may be engineered from proteins produced using organic cells, provided those structures are created outside of the organic cells

  • This is a much stricter condition than merely enhancing cells

• Update 2026-03-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographic Scope for Adoption: Significant adoption is assessed in the developed world, not globally.

• Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer:

  • The HPV vaccine does not qualify, as it targets a cause of cancer rather than cancer itself

  • A qualifying vaccine must directly target cancer, not merely one of its causes

  • The vaccine must target multiple types of cancer broadly (not a narrow scope)