Which engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
149
7.9kṀ40k
2050
48%
Commercial fusion power
90%
Regenerative Medicine
94%
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
96%
Gene Editing Therapies
66%
Quantum Computing Applications
68%
Lunar Bases
91%
Brain-Computer Interfaces
85%
Bioprinting
39%
Commercial asteroid mining
20%
Human Mind Uploading
5%
Commercial cold fusion
9%
Time travel to the future
1.6%
Time travel to the past
86%
Human-level AGI
56%
Space-to-Earth power stations
87%
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
44%
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
36%
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
20%
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
7%
Cryonics with Successful Revival

Resolves YES for any number of technologies that are widespread enough in 2049 but not in 2024.

Resolution criteria:

  • Significant Adoption: The technology must be adopted to a degree that indicates it has moved beyond the experimental or niche phase.

  • Operational Efficiency: The technology should demonstrate reliable and efficient operation in real-world conditions.

  • Regulatory Approval: If applicable, the technology must receive approval from relevant regulatory bodies.

  • Economic Viability: The technology should be commercially viable, with clear economic benefits.

  • Independent Verification: The breakthrough should be independently verified by reputable sources.

If it is unclear whether any given technology meets these requirements before 2050, resolves to some subjective percentage value.

  • Update 2025-07-01 (PST): - True Mind Uploading Definition: Requires a perfect copy of at least some regions of the brain. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - Autonomous Flying Cars: Only air travel capability is required; ground capability is optional. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-18-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Human mind uploading is the complete replication of a human mind's structure, function, and consciousness into a digital or artificial substrate.

    • It requires a high-resolution scan of the brain's neural architecture and synaptic connections.

    • The uploaded mind must exhibit continuity of identity, memory, and subjective experience.

    • It must be indistinguishable from the original mind in terms of cognitive and emotional responses.

    • The process must be verifiable through independent scientific validation.

    • It should not rely on speculative or unproven assumptions about consciousness.

  • Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Economic Viability Clarification:

    • Broader Market Requirement: A technology must demonstrate viability in a wider economic market, not just niche or research settings.

    • Niche vs. For-Profit: Technologies used solely in government-funded or highly specialized projects (e.g., exclusive use in space missions) are less likely to meet the economic viability needed for significant adoption.

    • Adoption Beyond Research: Evidence of economic viability should show that the technology is driving widespread use, creating new industries, or significantly improving existing ones, rather than merely transacting sales to research institutions.

    • Overall Impact: The economic viability criterion is assessed in terms of its contribution to overall significant adoption by 2049.

  • Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) – Human Specificity:

    • In this market, BCI is defined strictly in a human-specific context.

    • Any breakthrough in BCI must be directly applicable to human cognitive enhancement or interaction to be considered for significant adoption.

  • Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Quantum Computing Applications Clarification:

    • Evidence that quantum computers achieve quantum advantage by 2049, meaning they solve certain real-world problems significantly faster or more effectively than the best available classical systems.

    • This quantum advantage must be demonstrated in commercially relevant applications consistently and reliably.

  • Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Synthetic Meat Criteria:

    • Must be indistinguishable by taste from conventional meats (e.g., beef, chicken, pork) as determined by blind taste tests, making it very difficult for typical consumers to reliably differentiate.

    • For novel meat types that do not replicate existing meats, resolution depends on whether culinary experts and consumers broadly recognize and accept it as a form of meat.

  • Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Commercial Viability:

    • Seafloor mining operations must be commercially viable by demonstrating a significant and measurable contribution to the global supply of at least one critical mineral (e.g., cobalt, nickel, manganese).

Seafloor Mining Robots:

  • Defined as autonomous or highly automated underwater vehicles capable of navigation and performing core mining functions such as resource collection with minimal real-time human control (supervised autonomy is acceptable).

Widespread Adoption:

  • By the end of 2049, the use of seafloor mining robots should be established as an industry standard, ensuring the breakthrough is widely implemented.

  • Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Time travel breakthrough clarification:

    • The technology must be distinctly time-machine-like, meaning it must produce a scenario where an object or individual experiences usefully less elapsed time inside the device as measured by a physical clock (not just a subjective sensation).

    • Any approach that does not meet this standard, even if it involves relativistic effects or other mechanisms, does not satisfy the resolution criteria for a breakthrough in time travel within this market.

    • This criterion must be met in addition to the existing general market requirements.

  • Update 2025-03-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Desalination Technology Criteria:

    • Commercial Availability: The technology must be commercially available.

    • Energy Efficiency: It must reduce energy consumption for seawater desalination (salinity ~35,000 ppm, recovery rate ≥50%) to below 1.5 kWh per cubic meter.

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Brain computer interfaces (BCI): Must interface with multiple specific neurons for complex interactions and be a widely adopted regulated medical device.

    • Bioprinting: Must create complex, vascularized tissues (e.g., kidney organoids, heart valves) that can be successfully transplanted and function long-term.

    • Gene editing therapies: Must be for several common conditions and have a cost low enough to be a practical option within major healthcare systems.

    • Regenerative medicine: Must feature therapies that verifiably reverse damage from a major disease (e.g., regrowing heart muscle after a heart attack, restoring neurons after spinal injury).

  • Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Autonomous Flying Cars answer:

    • The vehicle's purpose must be human transportation.

    • A human operator must be able to specify the travel destination.

  • Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Time travel to the future answer, it must become a routine and practical method for achieving a real goal.

    • This goal can be commercial or non-commercial (e.g., for research).

    • Research into the phenomenon of time travel itself will not be considered a valid goal; the technology must be used to achieve a different objective.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy