Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration?
18
51
1k
2025
22%
chance

It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to retirement (the oldest Democratic justice is Sonia Sotomayor, at 68), so they might want to wait it out.

This is an extended version of https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-any-us-supreme-court-justice-r, which only went to the 2024 elections.

Resolves YES if any US Supreme Court justice retires before the presidential inauguration in January 2025, regardless of the party they lean towards.

Get Ṁ600 play money