Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2024 elections?
Dec 31

It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2024 election, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to retirement (the oldest Democratic justice is Sonia Sotomayor, at 68), so they might want to wait it out.

Resolves YES if any US Supreme Court justice retires before the 2024 elections, regardless of the party they lean towards.

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Nate Silver just released an article suggesting that Sonia Sotomayor should retire before the election

Since this just goes through the election, and Biden would have a lame duck session before the inauguration in 2025, I've created another market going through the inauguration.

Does retire also mean pass away?

@RobertLowman Good question! For this market, no, since I’m primarily curious about the case of a justice choosing to step down for political reasons.

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