Will Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections?

Question

Currently the Democratic Party controls the Senate with a 51-49 majority (including independents who caucaus with them). However, in 2024 the map of seats up for reelection suggests that Republicans will regain control, and future election maps potentially indicate the same through 2030.

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate again before 2030? This would be either a 51-49 majority or a 50-50 split with a Democratic Vice President.

This will resolve YES early if the Democratic Party takes control, or resolve NO when the senators are sworn in in 2031 for the 2030 elections and Democrats did not take control any time prior. (The results of the 2030 election do not affect this, but a special election shortly before the 2030 election that transfers control is theoretically possible.)

Jan 4, 6:31pm: Will the Democrats control the US Senate any time after 2024 and before 2030? → Will the Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections?

Jan 4, 6:31pm: Will the Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections? → Will Democrats control the US Senate any time after the 2024 elections and before the 2030 elections?

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 69% chance (46 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).