Military coup or self-coup attempt occurs in the USA before March 24, 2030
6
100Ṁ149
2030
47%
chance

This market resolves to YES if, before March 24, 2030, there is a military coup attempt or self-coup attempt in the United States as defined by academic coup databases.

Resolution criteria:

  • A military coup attempt is defined as an illegal, overt attempt by military officers to unseat the incumbent government

  • A self-coup (autogolpe) is defined as an attempt by an elected leader to stay in power through illegal means, with military support

  • The event must be classified as a coup attempt by at least two of the following: Cline Center Coup D'état Project, Powell & Thyne Coup Dataset, or other recognized academic coup databases

  • Failed attempts count as long as they meet the definition criteria

Sources for resolution: Academic coup databases, statements from recognized political scientists specializing in coups, or consensus among major news outlets that an event constitutes a coup attempt.

US Politics
Politics
Trump's Second Term
World
United States
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
-8% 1d72% chance
Will another United States president be assassinated before the end of 2034?
18% chance
Will there be a military coup in the United States before 2029?
10% chance
Will there be a coup attempt that kills more than 100 people in any rich democracy before April 2123?
89% chance
Which country will have a coup d'état during 2025
Will any of the following Western countries experience a successful coup by 2030?
14% chance
Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
11% chance
Will There be a Civil War or Violent Revolution in USA by 2030?
23% chance
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2030?
17% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy