This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
216
3.3K
2.8K
2300
82%
chance

The market also resolves Yes if it is a well accept fact that an human director of any S&P500 exclusively exercised their power using recommendations of some artificial agent for more than 2 years.

I will not sell my shares.

I wrote some script to automatize my daily bets.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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reposted

ooo interesting market

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 80% order

.

@DavidChee I feel like this market should not be unranked

@FranklinBaldo FWIW this case is explicitly listed in the guidelines as something that would be unranked because it "could only ever resolve one way"

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Guidance-for-running-a-market-8cb4257ed3644ec9a1d6cc6c705f7c77

Why would you want it to be ranked? That basically just means that people will battle over it at the end of month for leagues lol.

@jack Jack, I see your point that according to the guidelines, this market is the type that should be unranked since it could only resolve one way. However, I think this particular market has some prediction value .

My main interest in inquiring about the "unranked" tag is that it seems to have additional effects beyond just Leagues. For example, I created a new tag called "ai-in-sp500-board-of-directors" and add it to the market but it does not show up in the tag markets listing here: https://manifold.markets/browse/ai-in-sp500-board-of-directors

So I'm curious if the "unranked" designation impacts tag visibility and potentially other aspects of how markets function on the platform. The leagues and competition side is less important to me. Although more drama coming from leagues would be fun for this market.

@FranklinBaldo I think there's a tag limit of 4 for something, possibly causing this issue? In which case if you remove one of Free Money or Free Mana, which are basically the same thing, my guess would be that this problem would go away. someone please confirm or correct me if they know better

@Bayesian it's funny because it appears to be counting for the leader board of the tag:

@Bayesian I did as you suggest and it worked. Thanks a lot.

@AmmonLam nice.

And using the new numeric market type:

@FranklinBaldo also this

Why 80%? Why not 70%?

@FranklinBaldo Your daily M25 buys more NO's at 80% than at 70%. So for your own benefit, why not 90-95%?

@deagol 😂😂

bought Ṁ10 NO

What happens to this market if the creator leaves?

predicts YES

Friendly reminder that this market can’t ever resolve NO, as stated by the author.

predicts NO

@FranklinBaldo Hi sir, these 50s don’t seem to compensate properly for missed days (more further back). Any thoughts? Thanks!

predicts NO

@deagol oH, i see. thanks for that. Some time amgo the api of positions was not working.
So i changed my script to look my bets from the last 10 days, but i think this way i can miss some days. Now positions endpoint is working again, i will put my old script running again.

For transparency:
the market is up for a total days:330
this mean i should have betted 8250 but due some missing days i only beted only 7975 so far.
i will be betting 275 now for compesate.

also here is the code i am using now on Google Script App:
```

function placeBetOnAiOnSP500() {
  const apiKey = PropertiesService.getScriptProperties().getProperty('MANIFOLD_API_KEY');
  const marketId = '5eAXDA98XwOsTwQqVNyS';
  const userId = 'EBGhoFSxRtVBu4617SLZUe1FeJt1';
  const dailyBetAmount = 25;
  
  const MILLIS_PER_DAY = 24 * 60 * 60 * 1000;
  const MARKET_CREATION_TIME = 1670780967601;
  const totalDays = Math.round((new Date().getTime() - MARKET_CREATION_TIME) / MILLIS_PER_DAY);
  Logger.log('total days:' + totalDays);
  const manifold = new Manifold(apiKey);
  const userPosition = manifold.getUserPosition(marketId, userId);
  Logger.log(JSON.stringify(userPosition));
  let alreadyBettedAmount = Number(userPosition.invested);
  Logger.log('already bet:'+ alreadyBettedAmount, );
  let betAmount = totalDays * dailyBetAmount - alreadyBettedAmount;
  Logger.log('betting now:'+betAmount)
  if (betAmount >= dailyBetAmount) {
    const outcome = 'NO';
    const response = manifold.placeBet(marketId, outcome , betAmount);
    Logger.log(response);
  }
}

bought Ṁ275 of NO

@FranklinBaldo ops, did it twice by mistake. the script will adjust in some days.

Free mana here:

predicts NO

How does this market resolve if you run out of money, they change the system so it's harder to get, and you don't want to buy more?

predicts NO

@Mira

In participating in this market, implicit risks are naturally present for those betting 'NO', including the possibility that I may run out of money or choose not to buy more stakes. However, these factors do not influence the resolution criteria, which will remain based on the predefined conditions about an AI's involvement on an S&P500 board.

To all 'NO' bettors, rest assured that this market has been a source of amusement for me. Until recently, the primary source of funding for the market mana has been the daily streak bonus. However, API bets no longer yield this bonus. Although I find this market entertaining, I will not be betting real money on it.

Nevertheless, I am committed to keeping my promise and ensuring that this market remains operational. To this end, I'm currently working on setting up an automatic mana flow system. By creating soccer markets, I aim to generate a steady stream of mana to keep this market running as long as possible.

@FranklinBaldo Dat soccer market cashflow

@FranklinBaldo @Mira in case @FranklinBaldo runs out of liquid mana for some reason, I volunteer to supplement it so as to continue this market without a hitch