This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.
72%
chance

The market also resolves Yes if it is a well accept fact that an human director of any S&P500 exclusively exercised their power using recommendations of some artificial agent for more than 2 years.

I will not sell my shares.

I wrote some script to automatize my daily bets.

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Tassilo avatar
Tassilo Neubauerbought Ṁ5 of YES

Say this resolves positive at time X. This seems like it would converge toward the discount rate until date X. As far as I can tell, your 25$ into "no" should not actually make that big of a difference unless people are worried about locking up their funds.

Tassilo avatar
Tassilo Neubaueris predicting YES at 41%

@Tassilo

I would not have predicted so many people to bet on no. Interesting!

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 53%

@Tassilo if less than M$25 per day is invested in YES (very likely after a couple of days of the market being available), then the market will start moving towards 0%. Then you can bet NO now and wait until it gets to 1% or so to sell.

Yev avatar
Yevis predicting YES at 43%

@egroj Even if everyone stops trading now, it'll take over M$41000 to reach 1%. At M$25 per day, that's about 4.5 years.

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 77%

@Yev well, other people betting NO speeds that up, and also you can sell earlier. In just a month, M$25 a day it's M$750, that sends the market to 29%, not a bad return of you are buying NO at 77%

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 77%

@egroj also do you think that an AI being on a board of directors will happen before 4 years? In not sure why people would bet YES. Very long term investment?

Yev avatar
Yevbought Ṁ3 of NO

@egroj I'm not incentivized to explain my strategy

egroj avatar
JAAMis predicting NO at 77%

@Yev yeah I'm probably missing something, seems like one could just automate M$20 of NO each day and sell those shares the following day at a profit

Tassilo avatar
Tassilo Neubauerbought Ṁ10 of YES

Here we go.

BTE avatar
BTEis predicting NO at 27%

So it can never resolve NO but you will be 25 on NO every day? So it still makes more sense to bet NO than YES even though NO is not possible.

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldois predicting NO at 27%

@BTE I believe it depends on the price of NO shares at the moment, but yes.

L avatar
L

really curious what your intention is here

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldois predicting NO at 65%

@L I think a similar market could be done using year in numeric market, but I also think numeric markets don't work well in manifold. As the tension between Yes and No is very important to a market work well I am adding this subside.

Yev avatar
Yev

Can this ever resolve NO?

FranklinBaldo avatar
Franklin Baldo

@Yev No