Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Iran launches military strikes (ballistic missiles, drones, or other weapons) targeting Israel and/or US military/government assets by 11:59 PM UTC on January 11, 2026. Strikes must be confirmed by credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) or official statements from Israeli, US, or Iranian government sources. The market resolves NO if no such strikes occur by the deadline.

Background

Iran and Israel fought a 12-day war in June 2025, which began when Israel bombed Iranian military and nuclear facilities in a surprise attack. Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 suicide drones, and the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear sites on June 22. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised the possibility of renewed military strikes on Iran during a meeting with US President Donald Trump on December 29, 2025, including what one US official described as a potential round two in 2026. On January 5, 2026, the Israeli Security Cabinet authorized additional strikes on Iran.

Considerations

Iran's Defense Council warned on January 7 that the country could respond before an attack if it detected clear signs of a threat, a stance that implicitly raised the possibility of preemptive action. A member of parliament's national security committee stated "We will not launch a pre-emptive strike unless our military commanders deem it necessary," suggesting that while escalation is not inevitable, the option of striking first remains on the table. However, there has been no immediate public sign of Iran preparing for an attack in the region. Netanyahu has enlisted Russian President Vladimir Putin to convey calming messages to Iran, signaling that Israel does not intend to attack at this time, stemming from Israeli concern over a potential Iranian miscalculation that could prompt Tehran to launch a preemptive strike.