Will the U.S. deploy a tactical nuclear weapon against Iran’s nuclear facility before January 2026?
27
1kṀ3598
2026
5%
chance

Resolution Criteria

A “Yes” resolution requires credible confirmation that before January  1, 2026 the United States conducted at least one nuclear detonation intended to damage or destroy an Iranian nuclear facility (e.g., Fordow, Natanz, Arak, or similar sites). “Tactical” is defined here as a nuclear device with a yield generally understood to be less than 50 kilotons.

Acceptable evidence  (any one of the following):

  1. Official admission – U.S. political or military leadership publicly acknowledges using a nuclear device against an Iranian nuclear site.

  2. IAEA, CTBTO, or allied‑government confirmation – A statement by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Comprehensive Nuclear‑Test‑Ban Treaty Organization, or another authoritative body attributing the nuclear explosion to the U.S.

  3. Independent forensic proof – Open‑source radiological readings, seismic signatures, satellite imagery, and blast‑wave analysis that collectively demonstrate a nuclear yield > 100 tons TNT equivalent (well above the upper bound of conventional explosives) at or immediately adjacent to an Iranian nuclear facility, plus evidence linking delivery to U.S. forces (trajectory data, missile debris, launch‑platform telemetry, etc.)

  4. On‑site sampling – IAEA or trusted third‑party environmental samples from the struck facility containing unambiguous nuclear fission products indicative of a U.S. device.

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“The battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained severe damage and destruction”.

News Reports say that the sites were completely destroyed thus making the use of tactical nuclear weapons unnecessary.

Should I resolve this as “NO” right now since the U.S. used conventional bombing according to news reports?

bought Ṁ6 YES

@Yaqubali I haven't seen that they've said what bombs they dropped. Presumably it was the MOP, but I don't think we know for sure. Of course, if it were nuclear, the news would probably be leading with that.

@theincredibleholk The B2 bomber is capable of carrying both the MOP and nuclear. I would be shocked if they used nuclear. The Geiger Counter around the place would be off the charts.

@Yaqubali I’d wait until January, why rush? I don’t think this is over by any means.

@LyetKynes thanks for sharing your view.

@mariopasquato explain this?

@Yaqubali hi, first link is to a radiological data map, unfortunately it does not cover Gulf states or Iran herself, but at least it covers neighboring Turkey and Cyprus. Second link is wind patterns. The reasoning is a tactical nuke would produce fallout that should be carried around by wind and picked up by this (if the data is correctly updated).

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